The IRS will open e-filing in roughly three weeks. For lenders and collections agencies, that marks the beginning of your highest-ROI recovery window.

But tax season 2026 isn't just another filing cycle. Major federal tax law changes have fundamentally shifted who's getting bigger refunds, who's losing ground, and which borrower segments are most likely to settle debts when those refunds land.

What changed in tax season 2026

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) permanently extended and enhanced many Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions:

Higher standard deductions

These increases push more income into a "zero bracket," reducing tax liability for millions of filers.

Expanded Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)

Qualifying families with multiple children can now receive over $8,200 in refundable credits. A prime settlement opportunity for low- and moderate-income borrowers.

Clean Energy Credits Continue

Home and business energy improvement credits reach up to 30%, primarily benefiting middle- and upper-middle-income homeowners.

Who's losing ground

1. Households losing enhanced ACA premium tax credits after 2025. Projections estimate roughly 4.8 million people could lose marketplace coverage, creating significant healthcare expense pressure that reduces disposable income, even if gross refunds look decent.

2. Lower- and middle-income households juggling income volatility, student loan restart obligations, and rising living costs may find that refunds don't translate to discretionary debt repayment capacity the way your models predict.

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Why tax season is important for lending and collections

Tax refunds are predictable lump-sum liquidity events.

Miss this window, and you're waiting another year.

What should lenders and collection agencies do right now

1. Build or refine refund-likelihood scores

Combine the following data points to predict who will receive significant refunds and when:

• Filing status and dependents (married with children = higher EITC/CTC likelihood)
• Income bands (low-to-moderate income = EITC-eligible)
• Past tax-season behavior (did they pay during prior tax seasons?)
• Policy indicators (marketplace coverage suggests potential ACA credit loss)

Tag each account with a tax season strategy:

• "Settlement-first" for high refund-likelihood, small-balance accounts
• "Plan-first" for moderate refunds needing structured terms
• "Hardship-first" for low ability-to-pay or losing-credit segments

2. Segment portfolios by opportunity level

3. Pre-configure systems and compliance guardrails

Prepare for higher contact volumes during peak weeks (late February through early April):

• Set dialer limits and channel mix (email/SMS/voice) to avoid over-contact
• Update scripts for FDCPA, CFPB, and TCPA compliance with tax season messaging
• Schedule staffing ramps so human agents focus on complex negotiations while automated systems handle routine follow-ups

What's next

Knowing what changed is one thing. Knowing exactly who to target is where the recoveries happen.

This is the first blog in our four-part series on tax season 2026.

In the next blog, we break down the complete deduction and credit list for 2026, including new deductions for tips, overtime pay, car loan interest, and the enhanced senior deduction.

More importantly, we'll show you how to use these to build refund-likelihood scores so you know who's getting $8,000 refunds versus $500 before they even file.

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