In our last blog, we broke down the complete tax deduction list to help you predict refund amounts. Now, let's cover when those refunds actually land, and how to time your collection strategy.

Knowing that your borrower will get a refund is valuable, but knowing they'll receive it on which date is the difference between 40% collection rates vs 20%.

Today is February 13, 2026. The IRS has been accepting returns since January 26th. The first wave of refunds is already hitting accounts. Here's what you need to know about IRS schedules, tax refund status tracking, and timing your strategy for the rest of tax season.

Why tax refund status and timing drive collection rates

When borrowers receive refunds, they make different financial decisions depending on context:

• ‍Early filers (late Jan - early Feb): Money hits when tax season feels fresh. Consumers are responsive to "allocate your refund wisely" messaging. Lower urgency, but higher engagement.
• Peak season (mid-Feb - March): The refund feels like a windfall as consumers are still deciding how to use it. Prime time for settlement offers and payment-matching proposals.
• Late season (April): Filing deadline pressure, and refunds feel like relief, not an opportunity. Harder to engage, but those who filed late often need the money most.

The difference between contacting someone on refund arrival day versus two weeks later can be 15-20 percentage points in response rates.

The IRS refund schedule: Week by week

Key insight: Anyone who filed before February 15th has likely already received their refund or will within the next 10 days. Your window is closing on early filers.

How borrowers check tax refund status (And what it tells you)

The IRS "Where's My Refund?" tool is the official tax refund status tracker. It shows:

• Return received - IRS accepted the e-filed return
• Refund approved - Processing complete, refund scheduled
• Refund sent - Money deposited or check mailed

Borrower behavior signals

When borrowers start checking tax refund status obsessively (multiple times daily), it means they're expecting money soon and making mental budget allocations (this is your moment).

Campaign triggers tied to tax refund status

• Once "Refund Approved" status appears → Borrower knows exact deposit date → Contact within 24 hours
• Once refund deposits → Contact same day or next business day
• If borrower mentions checking tax refund status in communications → Prioritize for immediate outreach

What changed in direct deposit mandate

The IRS no longer issues paper refund checks, all refunds go via direct deposit.

Exceptions

• Borrowers without bank accounts can request paper check waivers
• Rejected direct deposits now trigger IRS Notice CP53E, freezing refunds until borrowers provide valid account info

What this means for collections

Borrowers without traditional bank accounts may experience refund delays while setting up prepaid debit cards or requesting paper checks. These delays create pressure, and opportunity for flexible payment arrangements.

If a borrower's direct deposit is rejected (closed account, wrong routing number), their refund is frozen until they fix it. They may need immediate cash flow solutions.

Campaign timing strategy by refund wave

What to do right now

This week (Feb 11-15)

• Contact Wave 1 borrowers whose refunds arrived Feb 6-12
• Review tax refund status for Feb 2-8 filers (refunds arriving Feb 13-19)
• Prepare campaigns for Feb 21 EITC tax refund status release

Next week (Feb 16-22)

• Launch EITC pre-deposit campaigns (money arrives Feb 27 - Mar 6)
• Contact Feb 9-15 standard filers (refunds arriving Feb 20-26)

Last week of February (Feb 23-28)

• Peak EITC deposits (highest-value week of the year)
• Contact same-day as deposits hit accounts
• Escalate to phone for accounts $5K+

March strategy

• Sustained campaign for mid-season filers
• Monitor tax refund status daily for deposit timing
• Shift messaging from "allocate wisely" to "close this account today

What's next

In this series, we've covered what changed in tax season 2026, the complete tax deduction list, and when refunds actually arrive.

In the final blog, we'll cover how to use AI-powered systems to execute all of this with AI agents, and hitting the April 15 tax filing deadline with 20-40% higher collection rates.